MyNotes – What the Future Holds #tcea2012 #ipads #edchat

The Education EcoSystem…reminded me more of a universe and made
me ask, when will it contract and implode? ;->

The following notes were taken at the System Administrator Academy held at the TCEA 2012 State Conference. The keynote speaker was Bill Rust (Gartner Group) who shared some eye-opening statistics. The most compelling point was the need for system administrators to change their perspective regarding up and coming technologies–such as mobile learning via BYOD/BYOT, tablet based computing including the “force of nature” iOS, free open source, and others whose time has come.

What struck me the most was the sense of inevitability, the tablet tsunami or unavoidable avalanche of personal computing devices finding their way into schools. As Bill Rust points out, schools are a reflection of society they are embedded in, and our society is making serious efforts to embrace mobile computing at the personal level. . .why shouldn’t our schools reflect this reality?

A crude drawing–sketched using Skitch on the iPad–of one of the diagrams Rust shared:

Essentially, in the diagram above, many school districts resisting change fall into the Cafe Fixed Menu, which means that the “CoolKids” users (bottom left quadrant) escape tight controls and choose to go underground or elsewhere with their technologies…I have to agree with that assessment.

He suggests a blend of the Private Dining Club, which is the Cool Kids Club for select people and purposes, and the Cafeteria Buffet. This reminds me a lot of the continuum of control diagram I shared some time back. Here it is again:

MyNotes on Bill Rust’s Presentation:
  1. Speaker: Bill Rust and Jan-Martin Lowendahl, Gartner
  2. Session Title: “Education in a World of Choice, Not Chaos”
  3. This is not going to be a technical discussion (sigh) – What have we delivered to our clients globally, what is happening in education. Over the years I’ve learned not to use technical language.
  4. Takeaway – change is happening and we won’t be able to stand in the way.
  5. As CIO, we controlled everything that happened in the data center to the tips of the end user. Those days are gone.
  6. We have to get cooperation to ensure operational efficiency, customer needs (or what they think they need). This is a world of choice…there are choices that are made on both ends.
  7. This slideshow has been given to 10,000 people.
  8. The elephant in the room – Technology has the potential to disrupt education. Disruptive technology is defined as cheaper, better and faster.
  9. Disruption in Media – Is Education Next? Creation -> Production -> Distribution -> Consumption
    1. Expensive production facilities
    2. Control of distribution channels
      1. Retail chains (music, video)
      2. TV Broadcast networks
      3. Powerful marketing channels
      4. Promoting New content
    3. What is impacting the education ecosystem?
    4. Education Predicts 2012 – Mobility and consumer technologies are going to rule the roost, and are already doing so in schools…let things in, adding things, and producing services.
    5. The media tablet exemplified by the iPad…this is the primary form factor for desktops for students, the world of choice that has arisen is putting stress on people who are providing services to stakeholders.
    6. Our key strategic assumptions: 
    7. By 2016, traditional K-12 agencies will lose 10% of revenue due to loss of enrollment to technology fueld alternatives
    8. By 2016, the iPad will gain less than 50% of the K-12 market as CIOs favor devices that are deployed more readily.
    9. Through 2015, 20% o higher ed institutions will gain a competitive advantage via a BYOD allowance,
    10. By 2016, more than 50% of all e-textbooks will be self-published.
    11. By 2016, 40% o higher education will reduce the costs of communication/collaboration and content management assets with learning stack architecture.
    12. The iPad is the consumer’s choice…and we are powerless to stop this avalanche. If I am the CIO, am I going to spend money that will give me heartache or on something that will work well?
    13. There’s going to be more and more competition in the tablet arena…more services are arising to help control those.
    14. eTextbooks – the use of e-content is a question of when, not if. Do we go zero to 90mph or do we go faster. PDF is OK for now, but that will change.
    15. In a typical district, txtbooks are purchased and distributed.
    16. If we provide each student with a device with etextbooks, is it a wash? From a support perspective, how does that impact our infrastructure and are we ready?
    17. Top Technologies changing the education ecosystem:
      1. Personally-owned devices – BYOT
      2. Change in primary device form factor
      3. Multiple devices – Device and OS agnostic solutions
      4. Customer intimacy on a part with operational efficiency…the argument that these technologies are harder to maintain on the “inside,” will lose to the argument that the users want to use technologies on the “outside”. Infrastructure folks will have to work harder to support these new technologies. Does the school reflect the outside world?
      5. Opportunities to change and refine the organization and delivery of instruction
    18. STEEP = Introducting Structure to Chaos (“Eating the Elephant in Pieces”)
      1. Society Education Inflation
      2. Technology – Technical Turmoil
        1. Death of distance
        2. Consumerization
        3. New infrastructures
        4. Exponentially increasing options of means of production and distribution, both for individuals and institutions
        5. Access to the Internet has grown in millions of users, as has the number of mobile phone subscribers in millions
      3. Environment – Energy Uncertainty
      4. Economy – New Normal…what is your return on investment (ROI)?
      5. Political – Retreating Responsibility –
    19. What is changing the education ecosystem?
      1. Consumer IT
      2. Mobility
      3. Accountability – providing teachers with more data
      4. Emerging technologies
      5. Societal expectations
      6. Education Options
      7. Business Intelligence Tools
      8. Collaboration
    20. The assumption is that if we have students that can collaborate, then their productivity will be increased.
    21. Strategic planning assumptions:
      1. By 2013, 80% of business will support a workforce using tablets.
      2. By 2014, 90% of organizations will support corporate apps on personal devices
      3. By 2018, 90% of enterprise applications will be targeted at web-based OS agnostic environments
    22. Education EcoSystem Concept – refer to picture – http://m.lockerz.com//s/181557514
    23. If we are locked into Cafe Fixed menu, we push the “Sit with the Cool Kids” into the underground or leave altogether.
    24. We can offer a degree of choice that we can support (Cafeteria Buffet) and offer the “Private Dining Club”
    25. Technology Planning POVs
      1. The extremes of operational efficiency and customer intimacy…their choice, our choice, and how we decide who gets to choose what.
      2. Operational efficiency: an ATM that works great but no one can reach it.
    26. Growth of broadband: the Internet is more ubiquitous.
    27. HypeCycle – take emerging tech and put them on a curve when they are going to be most useful. Terms: Technology Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, Plateau of Productivity
    28. Emergence: 5 to 10 years
      1. BYOD Strategy
      2. Social Software Standards
      3. District App Store
      4. BPO
      5. WaaS

You might also consider this infographic:

iPads vs. Textbooks
Created by: Online Teaching Degree


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Everything posted on Miguel Guhlin’s blogs/wikis are his personal opinion and do not necessarily represent the views of his employer(s) or its clients. Read Full Disclosure

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